Could anyone blame Sandra Perkovic for being distracted or just plain tired?  Traveling all over the  world doling out ass-beatings for years on end has got to take something out of you.

And I’m not being facetious.

I interviewed Valerie Adams a few years ago when she was near the end of a fifty-meet undefeated streak, and though clearly determined to maintain her domination, she also seemed worn down by the effort it took to stay on top for that long.

Same for Robert Harting when I spoke with him in the summer of 2014, while everything was still going his way. He was three-time World Champion. Defending Olympic Champion. The next day, at the New York stop on the Diamond League circuit, he smashed a 68-meter throw on a humid morning with the smell of garbage in the air. (Apparently, Icahn Stadium was built over a landfill.)

Robert was at the height of his uber mensch phase, capable of willing the disc 68 meters whenever he wanted, and yet…talking to him you could tell that like Val, he was weary of the  grind and looking ahead to retirement.

So when I started seeing photos like this…

…posted by Sandra on Instagram early this year, I began to wonder if maybe she was a little bored with the incessant training and travel, with maintaining the laser focus necessary to win two Olympic and one World Championships gold.

She had always been in great shape, but in the pictures she posted this summer she seemed to be noticeably thinner than in the past.

Could it be that looking glamorous had become more important to her than winning medals?

Uh….no.

Two weeks ago, she hammered a PR of 71.41m, thus serving notice on any knuckleheads out there who might have doubted her that they were mistaken.

Yes, Sandra, that sound you hear is me munching on crow.

A quick digression. I fear that my remarks on Sandra may come across as  sexist. What, can’t a woman look good in an evening gown and still throw 70 meters?

But another fine thrower, the American shot putter Jordan Clarke…

…also had me wondering this winter when he frequently posted images of himself powering through high volume, cardiac-heavy workouts–not the kind of training one would  indulge in if one’s main goal in life was to make a sixteen-pound ball go far.

The  slimmer Clarke became from those workouts, the more I wondered about his intentions for the upcoming season. And, as it turns out, he did retire from the sport.

Anyway, I just want everyone to know that I’m an equal opportunity doubter.

And Jordan, I know that it has always been your dream to appear in an article about female discus throwers. so…you’re welcome.

That said, if Sandra Perkovic is indeed in top form, does anyone have a chance of beating her in London?

How about Cuba’s Jaime Perez?

Built like a long jumper, she is an ardent practitioner of the “haul ass and knock the crap out of it” approach to discus throwing.  And she has had a sensational year, hitting a PR of 69.19m and beating Sandra head-to-head on more than one occasion.

How about Australia’s Dani Stevens (formerly Dani Samuels)?

After winning the 2009  Worlds in Berlin as a nine-year-old (that’s what it seemed like, anyway) her best finish in an Olympics or Worlds since is fourth in Rio.

But she threw 66.78m as recently as March, and she has tons of big meet experience.

How about Melina Robert-Michon of France?

Her tenth-place finish at the Beijing Worlds in 2015 prompted me to leave her out of my Olympic preview last year. She responded to that slight by belting a PR 66.73m in Rio to nab silver.

Her best throw so far this year is 63.63m, good for 14th on the world list. At the age of 38, she might be over the hill but she also might be lying low in an effort to make me look ridiculous again.

How about Gia Lewis-Smallwood of the United States?

She is the same age as Melina, but a very nasty back issue prevented her from even competing in Rio. It is something of a miracle that she is once again in fighting trim and currently ranked fourth in the world with a toss of 65.81m.

A throw like that wouldn’t win in London, but would likely get her on the podium.

The best of the German women this year is the veteran Nadine Muller.

A two-time World Championships medalist, her season best of 65.76m has her tied for fifth on the world list. As far as I can tell, she did not compete at the German championships this month, which made me wonder if she was injured, but she is on the team for London, and if healthy surely a threat to medal.

The best of the Chinese is Xinyue Su, currently ranked eleventh in the world with a season’s best of 64.08m.

She finished fifth in Rio.

Time for predictions.

Trofimuk

Gold: Perkovic

Reason: I quote: “She is the best there ever was and ever will be.”

Silver: Perez.

Bronze: Stevens.

McQ

Gold: Perkovic.

Reason: When Cuba’s Denia Caballero defeated Sandra in Beijing, she did so by dropping a 69-meter hammer on  her in round one.  At the time, Sandra was dinged up and 69 meters was beyond her range, so the competition was essentially over after one round. Perez would like nothing better than to follow her teammate’s example and kill one early, but Perk’s recent 71.41m suggests that she’s got the stuff to match anything Jaime can muster.

And, if it comes down to a battle of will, nothing against Perez, but…good luck.

Last year in Rio, Sandra showed her mettle when she walked into the ring for her third throw during the rain-soaked prelims sitting on two fouls. She threw 64.81m to advance.

The next morning, she opened the finals with…two fouls. A lesser person might have pooped the pants at such a moment. Sandra coolly drilled a 69.21m bullet that snagged her the gold.

A few years ago, I had the privilege of watching Sandra compete up close and personal at the New York Diamond League meeting. For some reason, the TV people wanted the discus out of the  way before the rest of the meet started, so I want to say warm-ups began at 9:30am.  Something like that. And it was fah-reeeezing out! Forty degrees with rain and a nasty wind. In late May. I like to have died.

Anyway, due to the early start and the conditions, I think Sandra’s coach Edis Elkasevic, my friend Peter Trofimuk (brother of Pat who helps me with these predictions) and I were about the only spectators in the stadium when the discus started, We stood where we could get the best view of the discus cage, and between every warm-up and competition throw Sandra came over to confer with Edis. I couldn’t understand what they were saying because they were not speaking English, but I could tell that in spite of the conditions, Sandra was jacked about competing that day.

She struggled on her first two or three attempts, and after one of them an official tried to block her from crossing the track to check in with Edis. Mind you, this was a couple of hours before the running events began, and the track was deserted, so I’m not sure what this guy was thinking, but no matter.  Sandra strode right past him, and when he protested she turned and said “You shut up, you!”

He did shut up, and a couple of throws later, Sandra got into that slick ring with a cold mist blowing sideways and knocked out a 68-meter throw to take over the world lead.

I wish I could say that the crowd roared in appreciation, but Edis, Peter, and I were too frozen to move our mouths.

Anyway, you get the idea.

Whatever happens in London, whatever Jaime or Mother Nature throw at her, Sandra will respond.

Silver: Perez.

Reason: She’s got more pop than anyone in the field aside from Perkovic. That will be enough to keep her ahead of a tightly packed group in which less than two meters separates those ranked numbers five thru thirteen in the world.

Bronze: Gia.

 Reason: Oh, why the hell not? If millions of Game of Thrones fans can convince themselves that there were dragons and people with perfect teeth running around during medieval times, why can’t I believe that a thirty-eight-year-old recovering from a serious back injury can conjure up  the performance of her life to win her first World Championship medal? I have one thing to say to those who doubt her. “You shut up, you!”

 

 

 

As with the men’s shot put, the men’s discus competition in London will feature a giant dude who has spent the summer dropping bombs.

That would be the big Swede, Daniel Stahl, who has four competitions over 68 meters this season including a 71.29m blast on June 29th at the Folksam Grand Prix meeting.

In London, Stahl will seek to exorcise memories of an awful performance in Rio where a best effort of 62.26m did not get him to the final (this, after finishing fifth at the  2015 Worlds in Beijing with a toss of 64.26m).

Oddly, Stahl’s main competition in London will come from three other athletes whose experiences in Rio were also at least semi-disastrous.

Frederick Dacres produced a groan-inducing best of 50.69m in Rio, but has looked fast, powerful, and confident on the Diamond League circuit this summer, hitting 68.36m in Stockholm, 67.10m in Oslo, and 66.66m in London.  Also, like Stahl, he performed well at the 2015 Worlds, finishing 7th with a toss of 64.22m and thus proving that he has the ability to make the final at a big meet in a big stadium.

Philip Milanov staked his claim as next great thrower on the horizon by taking silver at Beijing in 2015, then bit the weenie in Rio where he finished ninth. He has looked sharp this season with his best effort of 67.05m coming in Stockholm.

Robert Harting, arguably the best big meet thrower since Al Oerter, looked ready to  pull off a major comeback in Rio after blowing out his knee in the fall of 2014 and missing the entire 2015 campaign. He won the German championships in 2016 with a 68-meter effort, but suffered a back spasm the night before the Rio prelims while bending over to turn out a light. His best mark this year is 66.30m, but if the young bucks tighten up a bit and those Rio memories start to nag, can he be counted out?

Three of the top four finishers in Rio will not be competing in London. Neither gold medalist Chris Harting, who suffered an early spring back injury that threw him completely out of kilter, nor bronze medalist Daniel Jasinski made the German squad. Fourth place finisher Martin Kupper managed a season’s best of 62.86m.

Last year’s silver medalist, however, will compete and in spite of a lackluster 2017 campaign must be considered a threat to make the podium.

That would be Beijing champion and perennial victim of various Hartings, Piotr Malachowski. His best of 65.90m puts him tenth on this season’s performance list, and for the first time in about a hundred years he did not win the Polish championships, but his experience and toughness make him a contender.

Speaking of contenders, there are twenty-two throwers who have gone beyond 65 meters this year, among them Gerd Kanter (65.87m) who even Malachowski probably refers to as “Gramps,” Robert Urbanek (66.73m) who  defeated Malachowski at the Polish nationals, and the Lithuanian Andrius Gudzius (68.61m).

That said, let’s make some picks.

Trofimuk

Gold: Milanov

 Reason: As Trofimuk humbly puts it, “He is the only sensible pick. His performance at Beijing gives him the edge over the guys throwing the best this season.”

Silver: Malachowski

Reason: “He always performs well at the World Championships.”

Bronze: Stahl

Reason: “He’s having a great year. He’s young and  hungry for a medal at a major championship. Plus, he’s bigger than a refrigerator.”

McQ

Gold: Harting

 Reason: When the young bucks Milanov, Stahl, and Dacres start warming up in London, everything had better go right for them or Rio-inspired self questioning might be tough to suppress. Those guys are only human, right? Harting might be too, but he’s that odd, Michael Jordan kind of human who performs best in situations where others would be mired in doubt. In 2009, Malachowski throws a national record 69.15m in round five at the Berlin World Championships putting Harting in the position of having to conjure up a PR in  round six. We all remember how that turned out. At the London Olympics, he felt like crap. At the Moscow Worlds, he had a back injury. He still found a  way to win. If nerves or what have you keep the best throwers in the 67-meter range next week,  he’s my pick to squeeze out a winner.

Silver: Stahl

Reason: Like Trofimuk, I respect a man who could punch out a dinosaur. Even if he has a kind-of-crappy day, he’s going  66 meters.

Bronze: Malachowski

Reason: Sentiment. Watch this ESPN vid and tell me you won’t be rooting for him:

http://www.espn.com/videohub/video/clip?id=19906682&categoryid=null

 

It is time for my former thrower, Pat Trofimuk, and I to make our annual Big Meet predictions. I’m a bit worried that this will be Trofimuk’s last time helping me as he is but a few days from getting married and I know from experience that what a fiance puts up with a wife may not. If the little woman makes him choose between spending time keeping track of throws stats and spending time watching professional wrestling…. I’ll need a new partner.

That said, here we go.

Men’s Shot

When I played little league baseball, there were always one or two kids in the league who were legitimately eleven years old but through some quirk of nature looked to be in their mid-20’s.

I exaggerate, but you know what I mean. There were always a couple of guys who were way more physically mature than all the  other kids, and when they pitched against your team you knew you had no shot.

And I don’t mean you had no chance of winning the game. You had no shot at making contact with the ball.

You’d slouch your way to the batter’s box knowing you were about to strike out and just hoping that you could get through it without taking a fastball to the head.

Three or four pitches later you’d be on your way to the safety of the dugout, glad to have survived.

Competing against Ryan Crouser must be kind of like that right now.

In a world filled with outstanding shot putters (14 have gone over 70 feet this year) he appears to be unbeatable.

Twenty-two meters in an Olympics or World Championships is a great performance.  Throw that in London, and you’ll for sure be in the hunt…for second place.

Consider Joe Kovacs.

The 2015 World Champion, Joe is a super explosive, technically excellent putter. Just entering his prime, he can already make a case as being one of the best of all time.

Accordingly, he came up huge this past June at the USATF Championships with a sixth round bomb of 22.35m (73’4″for you provincial types).

That’s a monster put, and because of it, Joe only lost by a foot when Crouser responded with 22.65m.

Former indoor World Champion Ryan Whiting, another all-time great, also showed up big in Sacramento. After enduring a couple of sub par years due to injuries, his  21.54m demonstrated that he is once again ready to fight for a spot on the podium at big meets. It also left him nearly four feet behind Crouser.

How about New Zealander Tom Walsh, the Rio bronze-medalist who nailed a 22.04m toss just the other day at the MF Athletics Shot Put Invitational?  (By the way, how in the heck does a guy from New Zealand, where the season begins in January, still make great throws seven months later? Tom, you need to give a seminar on that some time soon. Until then, we will all start eating vegemite.)

But again, even if Tom goes twenty-two meters in London (and he may well do that) he’s not walking away with the gold.

How about my guy David Storl? I love the glide technique, and this two-time World Champ may be the best glider ever. Like Whiting, he has been limited by injuries the past couple of years, but his recent 21.87m put suggests that he’s in great shape.

If he matches that distance in London, he’ll have an outside shot…at a bronze medal.

Anyway, you get the idea.

So, without further ado, here are our predictions.

Trofimuk:

Gold: Crouser

     Reason: Duh!

Silver: Walsh

     Reason: To quote Trofimuk, “He has been tearing it up on the Diamond League. At his last Diamond League meeting, his worst throw was 21.46m. Plus, he’s no wussy. Plus, I love New Zealand.”

Bronze: Kovacs

      Reason: Trofimuk says that three spinners will medal, (is it just me, or does that sound a tad biased?) and that Joe is the only contestant aside from Walsh and Crouser who can throw 22.00m.

 

McQ:

Gold: Crouser

     Reason: At the 2013 NCAA Championships in Eugene, a young, skinny Crouser was sitting on two fouls as he entered the  ring for his third throw. According to Dan Block, probably the greatest thrower in Illinois prep history who was competing for Wisconsin at that time, Crouser took a slow motion safety throw. The result? Twenty meters thirty-one for the win. Crouser beating a stacked NCAA field, which included two-time defending champ Jordan Clarke, with a half-speed throw suggested the possibility of  future dominance. Now, four years and forty pounds later, the future has arrived.

Silver: Kovacs

     Reason: Joe is the only putter in the field aside from Crouser who can  go 22.20m on a “good” rather than “insanely great” day. Insanely great performances are rare at the World Championships.

Bronze: Storl

     Reason: At the risk of sounding like that friend who just can’t accept when a relationship is over…”If only she’d give me another chance!”…”Dude, she’s been married for five years”…”I know, but if only she’d give me another chance!”…I am not ready to give up on my favorite glider. Have I told you about the time I sneaked into a press conference for the German team at the 2014 European Championships to ask Storl why he had switched to throwing non-reverse? Some might call that stalking. I prefer “loyalty.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Watching the NCAA women’s discus final via the ESPN webcast last weekend I was struck by two things. One, it’s not only high school officials who are nuts.  The college guys are as well. Two different throwers whanged a disc off the cage so hard that it ricocheted straight up before coming to rest on the turf a few meters from the ring.  Both walked away assuming it was understood that they did not want those throws measured. Both assumed wrong. Ten meters forty. Eight meters sixty.  You can  look it up.

The second interesting thing about the competition was the sixth round when Kansas State’s Shadae Lawrence and Arizona State’s Maggie Ewen hammered great final throws.

Shadae went 61.37m for the win.

Maggie, after being pushed into third place by Shadae’s toss, responded with her best effort of the day, 60.11m, to take second.

You can see  those tosses on Macthrowvideo.com.

Right now, I’d like to take a look at some stills from the vids of those throws because I think they reveal why Maggie came up short in her effort to add a discus title to the hammer gold she’d won a couple of days earlier.

Here they are winding up:

Shadae has an unusually wide base here, and she uses a rigid right leg to keep her center of gravity from sliding to the right during her wind. I assume she does this to expedite the all-important transfer of weight to the left prior to entry.

And here that entry begins:

At first glance, both throwers appear to be in good shape. Each keeps the disc back as they swing their left side open. Their shoulders are level. The difference I see is that Shadae has turned her left foot harder and pushed her hips farther to the left than has Maggie. In fact, it looks like Maggie’s hips are sliding to the right a bit as her upper body turns and her left arm reaches left.

A couple of frames later, we can see that Shadae has continued to turn her left foot more aggressively than has Maggie, and that Shadae’s hips are opened much farther towards the direction of the  throw.

 

They both do a nice job of getting their right leg out wide, but Maggie’s left foot has stopped turning, leaving her in the position of having to run one direction while her left foot points in another. You can see that her discus is rising up a bit, which may indicate that her shoulders are too far out in front of her hips and she is falling into the throw.

 

Here they are just before right foot touchdown. They look pretty similar at this point, but if you take a close look at the video, you’ll see that as Maggie lands, her right leg has to absorb quite a bit of shock– another indication that she is falling rather than running as she travels  the ring.

 

You can see some of the effort that Maggie has to exert here to absorb the extra shock of landing off balance. It is probably that shock that has caused her discus to drop just when she’d like it to be rising up to a high point.

 

Here is the moment of left foot touchdown. Both have done a nice job of keeping their weight back on their right leg, but Maggie’s disc has dropped while Shadae’s is in an ideal position.

 

Both do a great job here of getting the right heel up before the disc sweeps past it. Unfortunately for Maggie, her center of gravity has shifted prematurely to her left leg while Shadae has stayed back on her  right.

 

Notice the direction of their hips at the moment of release. Maggie has a nice left side block and a super long right arm, but her momentum is pulling her toward the left foul line while her throw ends up landing near the right foul line. Shadae is on balance, her hips squared up in the direction of the throw.

 

The follow through on a throw is often a good indicator of how well the athlete maintained their balance while running the ring, and you can see that Maggie is falling off to the left. It took every ounce of her considerable athleticism to save this throw.

Most coaches will tell you that the success of a discus throw is determined by what happens at the back of the ring. That is absolutely the case here. Shadae did a better job of shifting her weight over an aggressively turning left foot. This allowed her to run the  ring on balance and produce a more efficient throw.

Let me conclude by noting that Maggie’s throw, though not technically perfect, was a big time clutch effort.  As was her NCAA record throw in the hammer. As was her sixth place performance in the shot. Clearly, she is one of the finest throwers in NCAA history, and fans of the throws have a lot to look forward to next year as Maggie and Shadae will both be back.